The four best teams in the World Cup have made it to the semi-finals, and now the first of the two big knockouts is upon us - South Africa versus New Zealand in Auckland. The last time New Zealand play at home in the World Cup. If they win, they'll go to the MCG. If South Africa win, it is they who will head to the MCG.
It's very difficult to keep any one of these two teams ahead. There was a feeling that at the start of the World Cup, South Africa would do something special. They have had a pretty up and down group stage, but they emphatically went past Sri Lanka in the quarter-finals at the SCG. And now they face New Zealand, who have been in great form in the tournament along with India. It's hard to differentiate between India and New Zealand, but for me New Zealand, right through the tournament, have not put a foot wrong.
They smashed West Indies in the quarter-final in Wellington. Martin Guptill made 237, and what a time to get a double-hundred. The quarter-final of a World Cup, at home, and in Wellington which is his home city - what an outstanding knock. It just goes to show the way New Zealand have dominated the tournament. Guptill will carry that confidence into the semi-final against South Africa, yet he will know it will be a one-ball game at Eden Park. You've got to start from scratch against Morne Morkel, Dale Steyn, Kyle Abbott and Imran Tahir.
New Zealand have been hit by the loss of Adam Milne but they will still believe in their bowling attack that has done so well in the World Cup. Trent Boult will be the trump card. Tim Southee and Daniel Vettori keep coming at you, throw in Corey Anderson and you get a very balanced side with both ball and bat.
South Africa should also go in unchanged. They don't have the luxury of someone like Jacques Kallis as the fifth bowler who is also a middle-order batsman, so they've decided to go with the extra batsman. I think that's what they will persist with in the semi-final.
They will be tested on a small ground like Eden Park, which will not be an easy place for the spinners to bowl on. Someone like JP Duminy, who had such a successful quarter-final in Sydney, could find it tough. The straight boundaries at Eden Park are small, and a lot of these New Zealand batsmen, who are clean strikers of the ball - Guptill, Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor, Kane Williamson and Corey Anderson. Anderson, in particular, is a very dangerous player down the order. Players like him will target these short boundaries. So that could once again be a problem area for South Africa.
In Sydney, the quicks taking top-order wickets took a lot of pressure off Duminy, but if they cannot do that then the pressure will be right back on him. The key for South Africa will be to take early wickets to make sure that Duminy's ten overs don't cost a lot.
New Zealand have been in the semi-finals before, but have never won. In the 2011 edition, they lost to Sri Lanka in the semi-finals in Colombo, but now they are playing in their own backyard. It is a semi-final at home, so no one can say that there's no pressure on themselves. The expectations will always be high.
Interestingly, it will be a semi-final between two teams that have never reached a World Cup final. This time, one of New Zealand and South Africa will be a finalist. New Zealand look a better side on paper, they are in form, and they are playing at home with confidence. I'm not putting anyone ahead, its still 50-50. But, I just get the feeling, as I said at the start of the World Cup, that this could be South Africa's tournament.
